The Money Edit

Opening bell

Opening bell

S&P futures 0.25%
US 10-year Treasury 5.31%
Nikkei 225 70,684 1.1%
Hang Seng 0.8%
Brent crude flat at $100
Gold $4,141

Futures edge up as yields hover near 2002 highs

Overnight

Wall Street finished Monday higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.66% to 7,773.95 and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.05% to 27,477.31, while the Dow added 0.18% to 51,267.90. Asia picked up the same mood overnight, as Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.05% higher at 70,684 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.8%, though South Korea's Kospi fell 0.8%. European stock futures were up around 0.5%, and US futures pointed to a slightly higher open, with S&P 500 futures up 0.25% and Dow futures up 0.42%.

What to watch

The August trade balance arrives at 8:30am Eastern, where forecasters expect a deficit of about 102 billion dollars, a figure that feeds directly into estimates of how fast the economy grew last quarter. At 1pm the Treasury auctions 58 billion dollars of 3-year notes, and that matters more than usual today because the 10-year yield is sitting near 5.31%, close to its highest since 2002, so a weak auction, meaning buyers demand a higher yield before they will take the debt, would push government borrowing costs up again. Fed officials John Williams and Michelle Bowman both speak, and traders will listen for hints about the October 27 and 28 meeting, where Polymarket pricing implies roughly a 20% chance of another quarter point rate increase.

Sources