The Money Edit

Opening bell

Opening bell

10Y Treasury to 5.16%
S&P futures 0.3%
Nikkei 225 1%
Hang Seng more than 1%
WTI crude 1.9% to $92.81
Gold 0.8% to $4,309

Bond yields at 2007 highs, futures edge up

Overnight

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,704.13, down 0.1%, while the Dow fell 0.3% to 51,349.98 and the Nasdaq composite edged up 0.1% to 26,939.37, a flat finish that hid two reversals during the session. Overnight, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose about 1% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell more than 1%, with South Korea, mainland China and Taiwan closed for holidays, and European markets opened slightly higher. US stock futures, which are contracts that let traders bet on where the market will open, are up about 0.3% for the S&P 500 after Iran's foreign minister offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane and restart nuclear talks within seven days if Washington accepts its terms.

What to watch

August durable goods orders arrive at 8:30am Eastern, measuring new orders for big ticket items like aircraft and machinery, which is a useful read on whether businesses are still willing to spend. The bigger event is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10am, because it includes what ordinary Americans expect inflation to be over the coming year, and that figure is what the bond market is trading on right now. The 10 year Treasury yield, which is the interest rate the US government pays to borrow for a decade and the benchmark for mortgages and corporate loans, sits at 5.16%, its highest since 2007, and traders have pushed the odds of another Federal Reserve rate rise in October to roughly 70%, so a hot reading would send yields higher still.

Sources