The Money Edit

Opening bell

Opening bell

S&P futures 7,650.50 0.6%
Brent crude $107.93 2.1%
10Y Treasury 4.98%
Nikkei 225 less than 0.1% to 63,484.10
Hang Seng 1.0% to 24,667.24
DAX 0.8% to 25,248.75

Fed meets as oil and yields squeeze stocks

Overnight

Wall Street closed lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% to 7,619.98 and the Nasdaq composite down 0.6% to 26,186.41, as chipmakers fell on warnings about how fast AI is being developed. Asia mostly followed, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.0% to 24,667.24 and Japan's Nikkei 225 closing barely changed at 63,484.10, and Europe opened down about 0.8% in London, Paris and Frankfurt. US futures point to another soft open, with S&P 500 futures down 0.6%, while Brent crude rose 2.1% to $107.93 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.98% after briefly touching 5% on Monday.

What to watch

The Federal Reserve starts a two day policy meeting today and announces its decision tomorrow afternoon. Futures traders put the odds of a quarter point rate increase at about 85%, which would mean the Fed is trying to cool inflation by making borrowing more expensive, and the 5% Treasury yield is the market pricing that in ahead of time. The only US data of note today is the Empire State manufacturing index at 8:30am Eastern, a monthly survey of factory activity in New York State that gives an early read on whether manufacturing is expanding or shrinking.

Sources