Monday, August 31, 2026 Opening bell

Oil jumps on Iran strikes, futures slip

Overnight

US stocks ended Friday a little lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% to 7,711.76, the Dow down 0.1% to 53,559.99 and the Nasdaq composite down 0.5% to 26,402.42, after Fed chair Kevin Warsh told the Jackson Hole conference that the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices. Over the weekend US forces hit rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island that were positioned to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane that carries a large share of the world's seaborne oil, and Iranian state media said Tehran struck US bases in Jordan in reply. Brent crude jumped 3.6% to $91.24 a barrel, Asia finished mixed with the Nikkei 225 down 0.14% and Seoul's Kospi up 0.46%, Europe's STOXX 600 was roughly flat near 655 with London shut for a bank holiday, and US stock futures were down about 0.2%.

What to watch

Today is thin on scheduled news. German inflation for August and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey are the main releases, and with London closed for the holiday, trading volumes are likely to be lighter than usual, which can make price moves look bigger than the news behind them. The week's real event is Friday's US jobs report for August, and it matters more than usual because traders now put the chance of a September rate rise at 62%, up from about 40% a week ago, so a strong jobs number would give the Fed cover to raise rates rather than cut them. Keep an eye on oil as well, because crude holding above $90 a barrel feeds into gasoline prices and then into headline inflation, at exactly the moment the Fed is arguing inflation is still too hot.